What converts
Derived from two anonymized analyses: the client-conversion workbook (1,617
submissions, 376 clients, Jan 2019-May 2026) and lead-form message analysis
(1,135 pre-launch + 48 post-launch leads). Raw data lives outside the repo at
~/TILT-private-data/. Full notes:
notes/current/insights/client-conversion-insights-2026-05-13.md and
lead-insights-2026-05-13.md.
The findings that should drive decisions
Section titled “The findings that should drive decisions”- Half of revenue is follow-on, not initial license. TILT is a model + services business. Give consulting equal weight to models in copy and nav.
- Follow-on share fell from ~89% (2019) to ~19% (2025-26). The May 2026 consulting launches exist to recapture it. Leading indicator the strategy is working: follow-on share ticking back up over the next 6-12 months.
- RE is 96% of the funnel. Keep RE pages primary. Non-RE lines need their own lead-gen investment; they will not get free traffic.
- Top 50 clients = ~50% of revenue. Existing whales are the highest-leverage consulting upsell. They already trust TILT and now have 6+ new services to buy.
- Development dominates RE (~52% historical, 44% post-launch). Acquisition ~29%, Fund ~16%, Quick ~3%.
- Pricing is the biggest stated concern (161 mentions). Address posture without numbers; see Sales playbook.
- AEO is working. 4 confirmed LLM-citation leads (ChatGPT/Perplexity/ Gemini/direct) across both periods. Continue schema + FAQ + structured content work.
- Complex financing resonates. ~75% of post-launch Dev leads want at least one of LIHTC/TIF/Mezz/CPACE/Multi-Date. Name these on Dev pages.
Conversion history
Section titled “Conversion history”| Year | Submissions | Clients | Conv % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 53 | 22 | 41.5% |
| 2020 | 181 | 64 | 35.4% |
| 2021 | 255 | 62 | 24.3% |
| 2022 | 256 | 55 | 21.5% |
| 2023 | 260 | 64 | 24.6% |
| 2024 | 374 | 55 | 14.7% |
| 2025 | 185 | 42 | 22.7% |
| 2026 YTD | 53 | 12 | 22.6% |
2024 was the crash: highest volume, lowest conversion, almost certainly ad spend pulling low-quality top-of-funnel traffic. The page-split (focused variant pages) was the right corrective; do not undo it.
Data caveats (so nobody over-reads it)
Section titled “Data caveats (so nobody over-reads it)”- Source attribution is barely tracked: 79% of historical leads left it blank; 89% of post-launch said “Google” but “Google” is the dropdown default (inflated). Real channel mix is unknown. Fixing the WPForms default is a flagged high-priority data-quality fix.
- Post-launch conversion (14.8% over 27 submissions) is below the 22-24% baseline but the sample is tiny. Recheck at 90 days post-launch.
- “Capital Waterfall, LLC” revenue split and campaign-level attribution are not knowable from the workbook.